Solid-state batteries are being touted as the energy storage devices of tomorrow and are expected to find widespread use in a few years – from electric cars to airplanes. This raises the question: How expensive will these batteries actually be? A search for answers.
Solid-state batteries have been the subject of intensive research for over a decade now, and there are now a number of companies that have announced plans to go into series production in the next few years. While there is usually a forecast for the expected start of production, there is usually no information on the cost of the cells. Nevertheless, there are initial indications of what prices can be expected. Depending on whom you ask, you will receive different estimates. This article should help to draw a clearer picture.
Scaling effects: The key factor for the cost of lithium-ion batteries
The influence of scaling effects is particularly noteworthy. As with any other technology, higher costs are initially to be expected during the introduction phase and the start of mass production, as smaller production volumes and the lack of process optimization make manufacturing more expensive. The scaling and optimization cycle could already be observed with conventional Li-ion cells: Here, prices have fallen over the past decade from $469 per kWh in 2013 to $101 per kWh in 2021 [1].
For the ramp-up phase of solid-state batteries, there is also already a forecast of costs: in a study conducted in 2019, CISION PR Newswire estimates the cost at $400-800 per kWh in 2026 [2], which is four to eight times higher than current battery systems.
Long-term price forecasts
But how do things look beyond these scaling effects? Ultimately, the decisive factor for the long-term price forecast of the solid-state battery is how complex the manufacturing process is and which materials are required. The fact that the separator and electrolyte are combined in a single component and thus fewer components are required speaks in favor of lower costs. Due to the predicted higher cell safety, it is conceivable that in the future costly measures for cell monitoring and temperature control, which are necessary in today’s systems to prevent thermal runaway, could at least be reduced. New system concepts such as CIP (“Cell is pack”) or CIM (“Cell is module”) as pushed by ProLogium [3], allow a new (simplified) design of the pack and thus lower costs in the long run – but due to the early stage of development it is difficult to estimate whether these concepts will reach production maturity.
On the other hand, there is evidence that actually points to higher system costs: The higher energy and power density is usually achieved by replacing the graphite electrode with Li metal. However, this leads to the fact that the mass fraction of lithium of a cell is significantly increased compared to conventional systems and therefore higher costs are also to be expected for the anode.
Cost forecasts: literature vs. manufacturer specifications
In the meantime, there are already first concrete estimates of the costs of the cells. A distinction must be made here between information from the literature and information from manufacturers of future solid-state batteries. The information from manufacturers must be treated with caution, since there is of course a commercial interest in providing particularly optimistic values. There are several companies that have provided initial information on the costs of solid-state batteries. QuantumScape expects lower costs than for today’s cells with liquid electrolytes, but does not give exact values (see Investor Presentation from May 22 QuantumScape [4]. Nissan is more specific: they forecast prices of $75 per kWh for their solid-state batteries in 2028 and expect costs to drop to $65 in the following years [5].
Comparing Nissan’s data with the literature, the cost per kWh tends to be higher: Schnell et al. put the cost of conventional Li-ion systems at $120 per kWh and see solid-state batteries slightly cheaper at $100 per kWh [6]. Schmuch et al. evaluate the cost of batteries with liquid electrolytes and graphite anode at about $58 per kWh. For solid-state batteries, they differentiate depending on the anode: with a 20% excess of lithium in the lithium metal anode, they calculate a price of about $75 per kWh; with a 300% excess, they determine a price of 128 kWh per kWh [7]. The comparison of costs is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Cost of Li-ion batteries (LIB) vs. cost of solid state batteries (SSB). Comparison between literature data (Schnell et al., 2020 and Schmuch et al., 2018) and Nissan’s cost forecast for 2028 and years beyond. Own illustration.
Conclusion: No clear trend
Based on the projected costs, it can generally be assumed that solid-state batteries will be priced in a similar range to conventional Li-ion batteries. It can therefore be assumed that they will be used in the automotive sector. Whether the batteries will only be found in the premium segment, or whether applications will also arise in the mid-range, will depend above all on how the costs develop in comparison with conventional Li-ion batteries.
There are indicators that speak for more favorable system costs, in particular due to the indications that production could be simplified if components are eliminated at the cell or system level.
While solid-state battery manufacturers certainly agree that cost reductions can be achieved, specific details and evidence on how these savings can be achieved are generally still lacking. Studies in the literature generally do not support the manufacturers’ forecasts, although considerable differences can be found here even within the literature. Due to the higher Li requirement of the Li metal anode, at least the pure material costs are higher, whether the higher energy density offsets these extra costs remains to be seen.
Sources
[1] Bloomberg NEF: Battery Pack Prices Fall to an Average of $132/kWh, But Rising Commodity Prices Start to Bite, https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-to-an-average-of-132-kwh-but-rising-commodity-prices-start-to-bite/
[2] Cision PR Newswire: Global Automotive Solid-State Battery Market 2019-2030: An Ultra High Energy, Safe, and Low Cost All Solid-State Rechargeable Battery for Electric Vehicles, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-automotive-solid-state-battery-market-2019-2030-an-ultra-high-energy-safe-and-low-cost-all-solid-state-rechargeable-battery-for-electric-vehicles-300790807.html
[3]ProLogium: Vinfast and ProLogium Launching JV to Build SolidState EV Battery Pack in Vietnam, https://prologium.com/vinfast-and-prologium-launching-jv-to-build-solidstate-ev-battery-pack-in-vietnam/
[4] QuantumScape: Investor Presentation May 13, 2022, https://ir.quantumscape.com/resources/events-and-presentations/presentations/presentation-details/2022/Investor-Presentation/default.aspx
[5]Nissan Motor Corporation: Nissan unveils prototype production facility for all-solid-state batteries, https://global.nissannews.com/en/releases/nissan-prototype-production-facility-for-all-solid-state-batteries
[6]Schnell, J., Knörzer, H., Imbsweiler, J. I., Reinhart, G.: Solid versus Liquid – A Bottom-Up Calculation Model to Analyze the Manufacturing Cost of Future High-Energy Batteries, Garching 2020
[7] Schmuch, R., Wagner, R., Hörpel, G., Placke, T., Winter, M.: Performance and cost of materials for lithium-based rechargeable automotive batteries, Münster 2018
